Europa League Calculations: Can Fenerbahçe Secure a Spot in the Top 24?
After a goalless draw with Olympique Lyon in the UEFA Europa League, Fenerbahçe increased its points total to 9. To advance to the next round, the team needs to secure three points in their away match against Midtjylland.
Fenerbahçe’s first clean sheet in Europe this season came at Ülker Stadium, where they held the French side Olympique Lyon to a 0-0 draw. This result brought the team to 9 points in the group stage.
In their final group stage match, Fenerbahçe will face Danish club Midtjylland away on January 30. A victory in this match will place the Yellow Canaries among the top 24 teams in the competition, advancing them to the next stage.
Seven Teams Eliminated
Before the final matches of the group stage, the elimination of seven teams has already been confirmed: Rigas, Slavia Prague, Malmö, Ludogorets, Qarabağ, Nice, and Dynamo Kyiv.
While seven teams have no chances left, five teams still have mathematical possibilities to advance. Porto, Twente, and Braga, with 8 and 7 points respectively, along with Hoffenheim and Maccabi Tel Aviv (6 points each), remain in contention.
Key fixtures will determine their fate, including Porto hosting Maccabi Tel Aviv, Twente facing Beşiktaş, and Braga playing Lazio.
Scenarios for Fenerbahçe
If Fenerbahçe draws against Midtjylland, their fate will hinge on the results of other matches involving teams with 9 or 10 points. These include Ajax vs. Galatasaray, PAOK vs. Real Sociedad, and Elfsborg vs. Tottenham.
- A draw would raise Fenerbahçe’s points to 10, but their goal difference would remain -2.
- Should Tottenham defeat Elfsborg, Fenerbahçe could overtake the Swedish side on goal difference.
- To surpass PAOK (+4 goal difference) or Real Sociedad (+2), Fenerbahçe would need one of these teams to lose heavily.
Other teams, such as Roma, Ferencváros, and Ajax, also play pivotal roles. Fenerbahçe will need favorable outcomes in multiple matches to secure advancement with a draw.
A Win Guarantees Advancement
Currently 23rd in the standings, Fenerbahçe will secure a spot in the next round with a win against Midtjylland. A victory would raise their points to 12 and ensure progression regardless of other results. Additionally, this outcome might see them climb a few spots, depending on other match results.
Possible Matchup with Galatasaray
If Fenerbahçe finishes 24th and Galatasaray retains 9th place after the final matches, the two Turkish giants could face each other in the next round. This scenario would also hold if Fenerbahçe finishes 23rd and Galatasaray drops to 10th.
